Linear or U-shaped? Age and subjective well-being in Ukraine

The paradox of well-being suggests that the relationship between age and subjective well-being follows a U-shaped curve: well-being decreases initially, reaches its lowest point in midlife, and then increases in older age despite worsening objective life conditions. However, previous studies provide mixed results: some confirm the presence of a U-curve, while others find a linear decline in well-being or a more complex nonlinear relationship. For Ukraine, the results are also inconsistent, and most publications do not specifically focus on this country. This study examines whether the relationship between age and the cognitive and affective dimensions of subjective well-being in Ukraine follows a positive quadratic (U-shaped) pattern or a negative linear one. Based on six waves of the European Social Survey (ESS) from 2005 to 2022, this study analyzes the relationship between age and subjective well-being among Ukrainians, measured through life satisfaction and happiness. ESS is used because its repeated cross-sectional design enables the separation of age, cohort, and period effects, allowing a closer approximation of the “net” association between age and well-being. To address methodological challenges related to age–period–cohort confounding, the analysis employs cross-classified random effects regression models that simultaneously account for cohort and period effects. Regression models show that both linear and quadratic associations of age with these well-being measures are statistically significant. Nevertheless, the U-curve is observable for life satisfaction, though not very pronounced, while happiness shows only a negative linear relationship. The findings highlight the need for further research on the paradox of well-being in Ukraine, particularly by incorporating additional ESS waves collected during the full-scale Russian invasion, exploring more complex nonlinear specifications, and examining potential mediating and moderating mechanisms between age and well-being.