Characteristics of the time-space distribution of atmospheric precipitation in the Kura depression natural province

Global warming continues to intensify and continues to exert its harmful effects in all regions. The South Caucasus region, especially the Republic of Azerbaijan, is facing an increasing risk to human and food security as water resources are decreasing year by year under the influence of climate change. The Kura intermountain depression, where the country’s large agricultural regions are located, is one of the areas most affected by this crisis. The purpose of the study is to determine the current state of the precipitation regime in the Kura intermountain depression and the influence of climate change on it. In the article, the characteristics of modern time-space changes of atmospheric precipitation in the natural province of the Kura depression were analyzed. In the analysis, we used observational precipitation data from 15 hydrometeorological stations covering the period 1961–2023. The research was conducted with modern mathematical-statistical, physical and cartographic methods. Extreme precipitation events were also analyzed for the same period (1961–2023). In addition, modern time-space distributions of atmospheric precipitation (monthly, seasonal, annual, surface) for the years 1991-2023 were identified. Spatial distribution of precipitation was mapped using GIS technologies. In the Kura depression, the average annual precipitation in 1991-2023 was 285 mm. 44% of these precipitations fell in the warm half of the year and 56% in the cold half of the year. In the warm half of the year, the amount of annual precipitation increases from the southeast to the northwest of the province, and in the cold period, the reverse pattern applies. The amount of annual precipitation in the province decreased by 9% (27 mm) in 2011-2023 compared to the climate norm (1981-2010). In this province, the absolute maximum quantity of precipitation was higher than the climate norm (1981-2010) by 7-8% for the years 1961-1970 and 2001-2010, 17% for 1971-1980, 4% for 1981-1990, 8% for 1991-2000s and lower by 23% for 2011-2020. More recurrence of annual precipitation occurs in the precipitation gradation of less than 10 mm, 11-20 mm, 21-30 mm, and 31-40 mm. The results indicate that increasing air temperatures are associated with reduced precipitation and increased potential evaporation. If the climate changes in the Kura depression continue with this dynamic, the decrease of precipitation and humidity in the large agricultural regions of the republic will lead to an increase in major environmental crises (drought, salinization, etc.).