Preliminary assessment of territorial solar irradiance characteristics for the development of solar energy in East Zangezur, Azerbaijan

This study develops a transparent, replicable, multi-criteria GIS-based screening framework to identify land suitable for utility-scale PV deployment in the East Zangezur economic region of Azerbaijan, a post-conflict area with limited prior energy planning research. The spatial characteristics of solar radiation are analyzed to support the development of the solar energy sector, providing a basis for sustainable prioritization at the district level. Using only open, internationally recognized datasets, seven constraints and resource layers are harmonized and rasterized into binary suitability masks and overlaid to create a composite suitability map. Solar resource layers (Global Solar Atlas 2.0) are constrained by thresholds of GHI ≥ 1500 kWh m⁻² yr⁻¹, DNI ≥ 1400 kWh m⁻² yr⁻¹, and DHI ≤ 650 kWh m⁻² yr⁻¹ to prioritize high-yield sites. Wind operational risk is controlled using the Global Wind Atlas 4.0 climatology, with areas exceeding 10 m s⁻¹ excluded. Topographic suitability is ensured using the Copernicus DEM (elevation < 1500 m; slope ≤ 15°). Conflicts between land cover and conservation priorities are minimized by excluding forests, urban areas, standing water, snow/ice, and grassy wetlands based on ESA WorldCover 2021, and by masking all protected areas according to the WDPA/WD-OECM dataset (July 2025 release). All datasets are jointly projected, rescaled to a common 250 m grid, and processed in QGIS 3.40.9; spatial interpolation is not applied to categorical layers to preserve thematic integrity. The results reveal strong intra-regional contrasts driven by topography and land cover. Jabrayil district emerges as a leading candidate, with over 80% of its territory meeting all seven criteria due to its extensive lowlands, gentle slopes, favorable solar conditions, and absence of designated protected areas. In contrast, the mountainous districts of Kalbajar and Lachin are largely screened out due to elevation, slope, and higher cloudiness, while Qubadli and Zangilan exhibit patchy, intermediate suitability associated with local topographic variability and land cover mosaics. The resulting composite suitability map and district-level suitability estimates provide evidence-based spatial prioritization to guide feasibility studies, grid integration planning, and phased infrastructure investments.This approach intentionally excludes factors that are either regionally abundant (e.g., temperature and humidity already reflected in irradiance climatology), data-poor (small-scale flooding, landslides, habitat corridors), or dynamic (proximity to roads and transmission infrastructure in a rapidly recovering region). Accordingly, while the screening is robust at the regional scale, project-level due diligence should include detailed environmental, geotechnical, and socioeconomic assessments, as well as network connectivity and transport access analyses. Overall, the study fills a critical knowledge gap in East Zangezur by providing a robust first step aligned with Azerbaijan’s renewable energy and resilient recovery goals and identifying Jabrayil as a priority area for near-term solar energy development.