Formation of the current demographic situation and prospects for its development in the city of Nakhchivan

Factors shaping the current demographic condition and future trends based on the current situation in Nakhchivan city were researched in the article. The principal aim of the conducted research was to investigate the results of the demographic indicators, namely dynamics, sex and age structure, marital status, and migration, by determining the tendencies over two decades in Nakhchivan city, unravel the interrelation among demographic indicators, develop a demographic transition stage model based on the changes, and make predictions based on existing trends. Fundamental methods such as statistical, comparative analysis, interaction, cartographic, and demographic modeling were used to attain the designated goals and objectives set in the research. Based on the conducted research, it was ascertained that demographic indicators are interconnected and there is an influencing mechanism among them. These factors have led to a diminishment in marriage and divorce rates, which in turn has culminated in a decline in natural increase. The decline in natural increase has also impacted the change in the age composition of the population. Thus, in the city of Nakhchivan, population aging has been observed both from above and below. Consequentially, the demographic development of Nakhchivan city has developed at a fairly dynamic pace. The trajectory of population change in Nakhchivan city can be classified into two distinct phases: a period of rapid growth between 2000 and 2010, followed by a more stabilized trend from 2015 to 2023. The pronounced increase during the first phase was primarily driven by a high rate of natural population growth. In contrast, during the second phase, a moderate decline in natural increase resulted in a slower and more stable population growth rate. Overall, the city’s population has expanded by 52.4% over the past two decades. At the present moment, the demographic indicators forming the existing demographic condition have significantly altered in certain years owing to the influence of socioeconomic factors. The dynamics observed in the demographic indicators of the population will continue at this pace until 2040. Most probably, between 2030 and 2040 , the existing demographic condition will transition from the third stage to the fourth stage , and this trend is likely to lead to serious demographic challenges.