Dimensional Causes for Turning Down a Peace Referendum: The 2016 Colombian Accord

Direct legislation through ballot measures is an increasingly common strategy to institutionalize conflict resolution. This article aims to analyze and quantify the structural causes that led to the rejection of the 2016 Colombian peace plebiscite, with a particular focus on how the terms of the peace accord influenced voting patterns. Addressing Colombia’s 2016 accord, we argue that personal, relational, and cultural dimensions encompass causes closely related to voters’ attitudes. However, when the terms of a peace deal are considered structural causes, they are strongly linked to the societal fractures that the agreement seeks to address. To formalize the role of these terms within the structural dimension, simple variables associated with each term were tested using OLS and logit regression models. The results indicate that areas characterized by rural poverty, coca cultivation, victimization, remoteness from the administrative and economic centers, and a strong presence of rebel groups were positively associated with the Yes vote; they also reveal a heterogeneous influence of the warring parties and show that the No vote prevailed in areas with larger populations and higher abstention rates. The article presents empirical limitations due to its heterodox methodological approach, which omits conventional post-positivist stages. Data limitations also arise from the simplicity of the variables.