GREEN INNOVATION AND PROVINCIAL CARBON EMISSIONS IN CHINA FROM 2007 TO 2020: SPATIAL DURBIN EVIDENCE WITH CLIMATE-ECOLOGY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Addressing the climate-ecology nexus requires evidence on how innovation translates into territorial decarbonization.Using a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), this study examines the effects of green innovation on provincial carbon emissions in China from 2007 to 2020, distinguishing the roles of green R&D scale and innovation efficiency.Both indicators show upward trajectories with fluctuations and exert significant negative direct effects on local emissions.The spatial spillover of green R&D scale is statistically insignificant, whereas innovation efficiency exhibits a significant negative spillover, implying that efficiency-oriented innovation diffuses across borders to deliver broader mitigation benefits.Clustering provinces into three groups by the two innovation indicators uncovers regional heterogeneity: the spatial effect of R&D scale and the direct effect of innovation efficiency differ by cluster, while the efficiency spillover remains robustly negative.These results underscore that expanding R&D inputs and, critically, improving innovation efficiency can jointly accelerate low-carbon transitions.For applied ecology and environmental management, we recommend strengthening interregional collaboration and constructive competition to enhance technological diffusion; embedding place-based, adaptive innovation strategies in line with local ecological and economic contexts; and aligning green innovation policy with ecosystem services and ecological security goals to yield co-benefits under climate change.