The agribusiness of Samarkand’s suburbs as a foundation for the city’s sustainable food security

Relevance. Rapid urbanization, declining agricultural lands, and increasing water scarcity make it essential to rethink the spatial organization of agriculture and its integration into urban food policies. In Samarkand, these pressures threaten local food supply stability and highlight the potential of nearby agricultural zones. Research Objective. This study aims to evaluate the agribusiness potential of Samarkand’s suburban districts in ensuring a sustainable food supply for the urban agglomeration. Data and Methods. The methodology integrates spatial analysis, agroeconomic assessment, and geoinformation technologies. Key data sources include official statistics for 2023–2024, satellite imagery, and calculations of gross agricultural output by district. The study identifies the functional zoning of the Samarkand agro-belt, calculates self-sufficiency coefficients for major agricultural products, and develops scenario models incorporating water availability, urban growth, and changes in production structure. Results. The analysis reveals pronounced territorial differences in production potential. Under the sustainable development scenario, Akdarya and Pastdargom districts demonstrate the highest self-sufficiency, while the crisis scenario shows substantial declines in vulnerable districts such as Taylak and Jomboy. The study also shows the decisive role of logistical integration and infrastructural accessibility in maintaining a resilient food system. Conclusions. The study highlights the need for a territorially adapted food security strategy focused on strengthening local production, enhancing spatial integration of agro-zones, and improving institutional coordination between urban and rural areas. The proposed methodological approach is applicable to other cities in Central Asia experiencing similar agrarian and environmental pressures.