Assessment of Spatial Heterogeneity in the Development of Industrial Potential in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation

The Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) is a strategically significant territory that plays a key role in ensuring the spatial development of the national economy and in implementing the long-term priorities of the country's socio-economic development. The high spatial heterogeneity of resource distribution across the AZRF intensifies the fragmented development and realization of its industrial potential, leading to a deepening of the already significant differentiation in the socio-economic development of its municipalities. Therefore, when assessing the industrial potential of the AZRF, it is necessary to apply spatial analysis methods, such as P. Moran's autocorrelation, to identify growth poles-territories with a high level of industrial potential development that form spatial clusters-and their zones of influence, as well as methods for assessing resource concentration and studying the growth dynamics of industrial potential elements within territorial systems. The information base consisted of official statistical data for the municipalities of the AZRF for the period 2009–2024, reflecting the level of concentration of industrial potential elements in territorial systems and their development dynamics. The research hypothesis was the assumption that the spatial heterogeneity of industrial potential development in the AZRF is due to the uneven distribution of its key elements: investment and labor resources. The results of the study indicate the presence of stable spatial clusters of industrial development, forming primarily large mineral extraction centers endowed with investment and labor resources, and the established zones of their influence on the surrounding space. Simultaneously, a significant number of municipalities with low industrial potential growth dynamics were identified, caused by insufficient concentration of investments attracted by enterprises into fixed capital and of the workforce, as well as a persistent downward trend in these indicators. The practical value of this work lies in the fact that its conclusions and quantitative assessments can be applied in the formation and updating of strategic documents on the spatial development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, as well as in the development of measures for state industrial and investment policy.