Projection of wind turbines waste in Brazil by 2050 and challenges for the circular economy

Abstract Brazil stands out for its predominantly renewable energy matrix, in which wind power emerges as an essential source, representing the second-largest contribution to the national energy mix. This study evaluated the sustainability and challenges of the circular economy in the Brazilian wind sector by projecting wind turbine waste through 2050. Using a statistical approach, the study analyzed installed capacities, the geographical distribution of wind farms, and the potential for waste generation. The results indicate growth in wind energy generation capacity, with an estimated 6.25 million tons (Mt) of waste by 2050, mainly concentrated in the Northeast region. Although the circular economy is recognized as a strategy to mitigate these impacts, high costs, technological barriers, lack of infrastructure for reverse logistics, and the absence of specific legislation and regulations are obstacles to full circularity. The study highlights the urgent need for effective planning to ensure sustainable waste management in the wind energy sector.