Temporal trend of sexual violence: time series analysis, Brazil, 2016–2022

Objective: To analyze the temporal trend of sexual violence in Brazil between 2016 and 2022. Methods: Time series study using reported cases of sexual violence between 2016 and 2022 from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN). The annual percent change (APC) and its corresponding 95% confidence interval were calculated using the Prais-Winsten generalized linear regression model. Results: A total of 299,962 cases of sexual violence were reported. An increasing trend was also observed at the national level (APC 8.13; 95%CI 3.38; 13.12; p-value 0.007) and in all geographic regions of Brazil: Central-West (APC 8.56; 95%CI 3.33; 14.07; p-value 0.008); Northeast (APC 10.61; 95%CI 6.60; 14.78; p-value 0.001); North (APC 5.06; 95%CI 1.09; 9.19; p-value 0.022); Southeast (APC 8.72; 95%CI 3.38; 14.36; p-value 0.008); and South (APC 7.01; 95%CI 0.41; 14.05; p-value 0.041). Regarding age group, sex, race/skin color, and education level of the victim, only four variables showed a stationary trend: age: ignored/blank (APC 25.90; 95%CI -34.38; 141.59; p-value 0.405), sex: male (APC 5.54; 95%CI -0.43; 11.88; p-value 0.063), race/skin color ignored/blank (APC -1.99; 95%CI -4.91; 1.01; p-value 0.147), and education level: illiterate (APC 1.68; 95%CI -2.81; 5.71; p-value 0.318). All other variables showed an increasing trend. Conclusion: The trend of sexual violence in Brazil remained upward, with a wide geographic and sociodemographic distribution.