Towards Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting with Temporal Stabilization and Frequency Differencing

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Authors: Junkai Lu, Peng Chen, Chenjuan Guo, Yang Shu, Meng Wang, Bin Yang
Cited by: 6

Abstract

Time series forecasting is critical for decision making across dynamic domains such as energy, finance, transportation, and cloud computing. However, real-world time series often exhibit non-stationarity, including temporal distribution shifts and spectral variability, which poses significant challenges for existing long-term time series forecasting methods. In this paper, we propose DTAF, a dual-branch framework that addresses non-stationarity in both the temporal and frequency domains. For the temporal domain, the Temporal Stabilizing Fusion (TFS) module employs a non-stationary mix of experts (MOE) filter to disentangle and suppress temporal non-stationary patterns while preserving long-term dependencies. For the frequency domain, the Frequency Wave Modeling (FWM) module applies frequency differencing to dynamically highlight components with significant spectral shifts. By fusing the complementary outputs of TFS and FWM, DTAF generates robust forecasts that adapt to both temporal and frequency domain non-stationarity. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world benchmarks demonstrate that DTAF outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, yielding significant improvements in forecasting accuracy under non-stationary conditions.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques Forecasting Techniques and Applications Stock Market Forecasting Methods

Publication details

Journal / source
Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Publisher
Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI)
Volume
40
Issue
29
Pages
24070–24078
Publication date
14 March 2026