Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets
Abstract
Prediction markets offer a new market-based approach to measuring macroeconomic expectations in real-time. We evaluate the accuracy of prediction market-implied forecasts from Kalshi, the largest federally regulated prediction market overseen by the CFTC. We compare Kalshi with more traditional survey and market-implied forecasts, examine how expectations respond to macroeconomic and financial news, and how policy signals are interpreted by market participants. Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Sports Analytics and Performance
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Finance and Economics Discussion Series
- Publisher
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Issue
- 2026-010
- Pages
- 1–1
- Publication date
- 1 February 2026