Global shrimp market: examining how Indian vannamei changed the supply and market dynamics

India is the second largest contributor in the global shrimp export market with a 25 % share, Shrimps account for 75 % of India’s seafood exports and Penaeus vannamei being the dominant commodity. The study analyzed the dynamics of the shrimp market by keeping the entry of P. vannamei as a reference point in India during 2009 and its impact on other primary shrimp producers over three decades (1988 to 2022). Results showed exports grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 4.5 % from 1988 to 2008, whereas they grew at 19.7 % after the introduction of P. vannamei (2009 to 2019). India’s P. vannamei production affected the dominance of Thailand, China, and Indonesia in export markets. Further, Markov chain analysis was employed to assess market stability and estimate transition probabilities across export destinations, revealing instability in India’s shrimp export markets during the post- P. vannamei period (2010–2019), along with the emergence of new markets in the post-COVID-19 phase (2010–2022). The decreasing international price of shrimp is alarming due to the supply surge and possible saturation in many export markets. Thus, India will need to strategize species diversification, commercial culture of native shrimp species to maintain the comparative advantage of India’s shrimps in the international market as well as to ensure profitability for Indian shrimp farmers.