Navigating Uncertainty: The Economic, Legal, and Union Determinants of Migrants’ Fertility Intentions

The relationship between migration and fertility is shaped by the complex interplay of various dimensions of uncertainty that migrants encounter before, during, and after their migration journey. This study leverages the availability of unique information regarding the uncertainty regarding migrants’ legal status, coupled with the more traditional forms of economic and union uncertainty, to investigate how these various dimensions of uncertainty influence migrants’ short-term fertility intentions. We use data from the 2019 Regional Observatory for Integration and Multi-ethnicity (ORIM), collected in the Italian region of Lombardy which presents a unique 'experimental laboratory' for examining these dynamics. ORIM collects a rich set of information on migration and family histories, current socioeconomic conditions, and fertility preferences of individuals with a migrant background. We use Linear Probability Models to predict migrants’ short-term fertility intentions depending on legal status, economic, and union uncertainty. Our results underscore that the three domains of uncertainty—economic, union-related, and legal—operate simultaneously and often reinforce one another. By leveraging data from a region with a sizable and diverse migrant population, our study offers broadly generalizable insights into the determinants of short-term fertility intentions, contributing to a more refined understanding of fertility behavior in contexts of international migration.