Global zirconium market as a critical mineral raw material

This study addresses the growing recognition of zirconium raw materials as a critical mineral resource in most industrialized countries and the need for a comprehensive assessment of the complex global zirconium market. Using statistical, graphical, and analytical methods, the study examines the zirconium resource base, the spatial distribution of zirconium deposits by geological type, global commodity flows (production, imports, exports, and consumption) by country, as well as prices and future production and consumption trends. The analysis shows that global consumption of zirconium raw materials has increased rapidly, from 39 kt in 1950 to 2.191 Mt in 2024. The main demand-side trend is the sharp rise in consumption in China, driven by rapid economic growth: from 84 kt (8.7% of the global market) in 1997 to 1.83 Mt (78%) in 2024. At the same time, growth of the global zirconium raw materials market is constrained by rising demand and prices, the high share of international trade, and conflicting interests between producing countries (Australia, South Africa, Mozambique, Indonesia, and Senegal) and the major consuming countries (China, the European Union, the United States, India, and Japan). Another major challenge is that a significant share of global reserves is located in complex endogenic deposits that are difficult to develop both technologically and economically. In most industrialized countries, zirconium is classified as a critical mineral resource. Global proven reserves of zirconium raw materials in developed deposits are estimated at 95 Mt, while forecast resources amount to 232 Mt. Production is currently concentrated mainly in titanium-zirconium placer deposits; however, zirconium also occurs in complex endogenic deposits in carbonatites and alkaline igneous rocks in the form of zircon, baddeleyite, and eudialyte. Global production of zircon concentrate increased from 537 kt in 1970 to 1.64 Mt in 2024 (+2.4% per year), while cumulative global production for 1950–2024 reached 59.7 Mt. Export supply of zircon concentrate to the global market, including re-exports, increased from 395 kt in 1970 to 1.86 Mt in 2024. In the 2010s, the share of exports in global zirconium raw material production ranged from 61% to 98%. High demand led to the emergence of a new group of producers developing placer deposits in Indonesia, Mozambique, Senegal, Kazakhstan, Madagascar, Kenya, Vietnam, and Sierra Leone. Their share of global exports increased from 0.2% in 1999 to 30% in 2024. Production from placer deposits may increase significantly in Mozambique, Madagascar, and Vietnam, while new mining operations may also emerge in Namibia and Tanzania. In addition to placer deposits, projects are being considered for the development of complex endogenic deposits in which zircon concentrate would be produced as a by-product, including Strange Lake and Thor Lake (Canada), Bear Lodge (USA), Baerzhe, Bozigor, and Tudiling (China), Khalzan-Buregtei (Mongolia), and Katuginskoye, Ulug-Tanzekskoye, and Zashikhinskoye (Russia). Development of deposits representing a new technological type—eudialyte ores, which constitute complex zirconium–rare-earth raw materials, is also possible. These projects include Nechalacho (Canada), Tanbreez–Kvanefjeld (Greenland), Toongi–Dubbo (Australia), Lovozerskoye (Russia), and Saima (China).