From Policy to Plant Shutdown: Procurement Governance and Refinery Operational Fragility in Ghana and Nigeria

Recurring refinery shutdowns in West Africa are frequently attributed to technical failures, aging infrastructure, or financing constraints.This article advances a governance-based explanation, arguing that procurement governance configurations rather than technical capacity alone systematically shape refinery operational fragility.Using an asymmetric comparative design, the study anchors empirical analysis in Ghana through survey-based Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) (n = 146) and extends interpretation to Nigeria through structured institutional analysis of publicly documented sector dynamics.Ghanaian results show that procurement challenges are strongly associated with refinery process disruptions (β = 0.482, t = 6.284, p < .001),while regulatory compliance has no statistically significant direct effect on refinery process outcomes (β = 0.074, t = 0.775, p = .438).Procurement processes, however, are strongly associated with sustainability outcomes (β = 0.555, p < .001).The model explains substantial variance in procurement's operational role (R² = .467).The Nigerian case reveals a different institutional pathology politicized governance and policy volatility producing historically similar outcomes, although recent large-scale refining investments have begun to alter the landscape.Drawing on transaction cost economics and institutional theory, the article conceptualizes "compliance without performance" as a recurring governance failure mode and proposes procurementcentered reforms for capital-intensive industries.