Procurement Challenges, Supply Disruptions, and Refinery Downtime: Evidence from Ghana’s Downstream Petroleum Sector

Refinery downtime remains a persistent constraint on petroleum supply and industrial performance in many developing economies.While refinery shutdowns are frequently attributed to aging infrastructure and capital constraints, limited empirical attention has been given to procurement-related drivers of operational disruption.This study investigates the relationship between procurement challenges and refinery downtime in Ghana's downstream petroleum sector.Using a sequential explanatory mixed-methods design, survey data from 150 industry professionals were analyzed through Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), followed by qualitative interviews to contextualize the findings.Results reveal a strong and statistically significant relationship between procurement challenges and refinery downtime (β = 0.62, p < .001).In addition, procurement processes significantly moderate this relationship (β = 0.31, p < .01),indicating that weak procurement governance amplifies operational disruptions.Anchored in Transaction Cost Economics and Agency Theory, the findings reposition refinery downtime as not only a technical reliability issue but also a supply-chain governance and execution problem.The study contributes empirical evidence from an emerging-economy context and offers actionable implications for strengthening procurement systems to reduce unplanned outages and improve refinery performance.