Climate-Stabilizing, California Light-Duty Vehicle Requirements, Versus Air Resource Board Goals

An Introduction is provided, including the importance of light-duty vehicles (LDVs: cars and light duty trucks) and a definition of the top-level LDV requirements to limit their carbon dioxide (“CO2”) emissions. Anthropogenic climate change fundamentals are presented, including its cause, its potential for harm, California mandates, and a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction road map to avoid disaster. A 2030 climate-stabilizing GHG reduction target value is calculated, using statements by climate experts. The formula for GHG emissions, as a function of per-capita driving, population, fleet CO2 emissions per mile, and the applicable lowcarbon fuel standard (LCFS) is given. The ratio of the 2015 value of car-emission-per-mileto the 2005valueof car-emission-per-mileis obtained. Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) mileage values from 2000 to 2030 are identified, as either mandates or new requirements. A table is presented that estimates 2015 LDV fleet mileage. Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) parameters are given. A table is shown that uses 2030 ZEV and ICE (ICE LDVs) requirements, named the “Heroic Measures” case,to compute the LDV fleet-equivalent mileage. That equivalent fleet mileage is used, with population and the requiredemission reduction, to compute a required per-capita driving reduction, with respect to 2005. Measures to achieve this per-capita driving reduction are described, with reductions allocated to each measure. The energy used per year for the Heroic Measures case is estimated The “Heroic Measures” set of fractions of ZEV’s purchased, as a function of year, is compared to the California Air Resources Board (CARB) goals.