Neural network model of predictive analytics of a roasting machine for pellet production in non-ferrous metallurgy

An original software model is proposed for detecting anomalies in the technological data of a conveyor-type roasting machine used in the preparation of raw materials for the production of non-ferrous metals, as well as estimating the useful life of the equipment. The solution of these tasks is performed within the framework of predictive analytics, the purpose of which in this case is to forecast emergency situations and negative trends in the dynamics of pellets heat treatment and to use these forecasts to implement preventive measures and scheduled maintenance. The relevance of the research task is the need to improve the accuracy of predictive analytics models for modern non-ferrous metal production through the introduction of advanced digital and intelligent data analysis technologies. This creates additional competitive advantages for production facilities, since the traditional statistical models provide acceptable solutions only within a narrow range of possible dynamic variations of the controlled technological process. The novelty of the research results lies in the developed multichannel structure of a neural network predictive analytics model based on an ensemble of autoencoders. The model detects and localizes anomalies in the technological zones of the roasting machine. A distinctive feature of the model is that the dynamics of the error in restoring input data by an autoencoder is used to predict the time of anomaly occurrence, which is interpreted as an estimate of the useful life of the equipment and is implemented based on the recursive least squares method. Simulation experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the ability of the proposed predictive analytics model to detect anomalies and forecast the useful life of the roasting machine. The economic effect of the implementation of the proposed predictive analytics model will be reflected in reduced costs associated with unplanned repairs and the elimination the consequences of emergency situations involving the roasting machine.The work was carried out with the financial support of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation within the framework of the state assignment project No. FSWF-2026-0010.