Proactive Management of the Technical and Economic Obsolescence of a Complex Organizational and Technical System of Continuous Application

The article discusses the impact of the obsolescence of components, which is accompanied by a decrease in their availability due to their removal from production, on the technical and economic efficiency of complex organizational and technical systems of continuous use. The article reveals a link between the decrease in availability of spare parts and an increase in the duration of forced system downtime. It is proposed to compensate for technical and economic obsolescence by proactive management of obsolescence associated with the early adoption of measures to form reserves of elements based on forecasts of the residual service life of a complex organizational and technical system based on the criterion of decreasing technical and economic efficiency. The paper presents the main results of the development of a mathematical model for predicting the full and residual resources of a complex organizational and technical system based on the criterion of technical and economic efficiency. The paper introduces the concepts of "ultimate state of a complex organizational and technical system based on the criterion of reduced technical and economic efficiency," "full service life before technical and economic obsolescence," and "residual service life before technical and economic obsolescence" of a complex organizational and technical system. The paper presents the results of the development of a mathematical model for predicting the full and residual service life of a complex organizational and technical system based on the criterion of technical and economic obsolescence. The mathematical model takes into account the costs of creating the system, ensuring its operation with the required reliability, and the cost of damage caused by forced downtime. The article presents graphs showing the dependence of the resulting useful actual effect of the system’s operation on time, taking into account the increasing failure rates and decreasing recovery rates of components, which reflect the combined effects of physical aging and obsolescence. The article also provides an algorithm and an example of predicting the total and residual service life of a complex organizational and technical system for continuous use before it becomes technically and economically obsolete.