The Causal Effect of Social and Political Trust on Social Policy Preferences

Though trust and the welfare state are inextricably intertwined, current scholarship remains divided on whether trust shapes welfare attitudes or whether welfare state characteristics influence levels of trust. This paper therefore investigates the causal effect of social and political trust on support for different welfare state arrangements. We consider both political and social trust, as political trust is expected to matter more for policies that require trust in political institutions to manage the social arrangements efficiently and fairly, while social trust is expected to matter more for policies that require trust in beneficiaries to receive support. In contrast to previous work, we will also acknowledge the multidimensionality of the welfare state by distinguishing between support for social investment (e.g education) and social consumption (e.g. unemployment benefits). To test this, we are conducting a survey experiment in the Netherlands, where respondents read a fictional statement featuring a positive or negative experience with either the government or welfare beneficiaries. By linking distinct literatures on citizens’ trust in government and in fellow citizens, this article examines how experimentally induced changes in trust relate to support for welfare policies, thereby highlighting how such shifts may influence institutional legitimacy and democratic stability.