Individuals Underestimate Extremes

ABSTRACT: We examine individuals’ understanding of others’ and their own extreme estimates in three studies. In Study 1, we ask 100 participants to first guess the number of marbles in a jar, and then to also estimate the highest and lowest guess made by another person in the group. We observe that estimates of extremes fall short of actual extremes, on average, although some individuals provide estimates that exceed actual extremes. Additionally, individuals demonstrate relatively low awareness of their own extremity as reflected in the tendency of extreme individuals to expect even greater extremity from others, and the related tendency of some individuals to believe themselves to be extreme even when they are not. In Study 2, we confirm that results hold for several other perceptual estimates and that individuals’ estimates of extremes do not differ significantly by group size. In a third study, individuals are presented with the extreme marble estimates from a reference group and then estimate average beliefs of the same group. Extreme reference values influence individual estimates of the group average, which, in turn, leads individuals to perceive greater differences between themselves and the reference group.