Patterns of Cooperation and Public Opinion on Rapprochement

How do citizens evaluate conciliatory policies during periods of rapprochement? While existing research highlights the role of cooperative signals from a foreign adversary in gaining public support for peace, it often treats rapprochement as a discrete event rather than a dynamic process. This paper argues that individuals evaluate an adversary’s intention by interpreting the broader trajectory of behavior rather than isolated gestures. Specifically, we posit that when adversary's cooperation is inconsistent or declining across time, support for de-escalation wanes, as these patterns signal a lack of sustained commitment. To test this argument, we field a survey experiment in South Korea regarding the 2018 inter-Korean rapprochement.