Forecasting the Prevalence of Obstructive Sleep Apnea in the Global Population up to 2050

The aim of this study is to estimate the current and future prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in the global population up to the year 2050. The study will use a probabilistic simulation model based on the Monte Carlo method. The model will simulate a representative population in which each individual will be characterized by variables such as age, sex, BMI, OSA status, and the apnea–hypopnea index (AHI). The simulation will incorporate changes in BMI over time, age- and sex-dependent mortality, and the relationship between BMI and the risk of OSA. The model will iterate in five-year time steps until 2050.