Velocity Asymmetry Law — D5C Currency Crisis (Laeven-Valencia + PFMH + IMF WEO, 1970–2019)

We test whether the Velocity Asymmetry Law (VAL) — which predicts that the ratio Lambda = F/S (fiscal deficit pressure relative to growth capacity) predicts currency crisis onset with threshold structure and pre/post asymmetry. Lambda_flujo = |primary_balance| / GDP_growth_rate. D5C is the eighth registered validation domain of the VAL empirical program. Three pre-specified confirmatory hypotheses are tested sequentially (H1 monotonic, H2 threshold, H3 hysteresis). Domain PASS requires H1 AND H2 AND H3 all confirmed. CONFIRMATORY only if N_crisis_final ≥ 50 (stop condition SC-2). Full protocol: D5C_CURRENCY_CRISIS_VALIDATION_PROTOCOL_v1_0.docx (attached).