Binary weather prediction in autistic and non-autistic adults

In this study, we seek to examine the ability of autistic adults recruited through SPARK and non-autistic adults recruited through Prolific to predict a binary outcome (sun vs rain) based on a set of cue cards that are introduced progressively over the course of the task. Participants complete a three-part learning task. In each trial, one cue card is presented in isolation, and participants predict whether the outcome will be “sun” or “rain”, followed by immediate feedback. In part 1, on each trial, one of two cue cards is shown, each probabilistically predictive of the outcome (one favoring sun, the other favoring rain). In part 2, a third cue is added, which is entirely uninformative (50/50% indicative of sun or rain). In part 3, a fourth cue is added that is fully predictive (100% indicative of sun). We test three specific hypotheses comparing autistic and non-autistic adults regarding baseline learning in part 1, susceptibility to disruption by an uninformative cue in part 2, and use of a fully predictive cue in part 3. In addition to trial-by-trial choice behavior, we also collect subjective probability ratings for selected cues after each part of the task.