Early-Warning Predictive Models for Student Pilot Progression

The paper evaluates how modern psychometric methods—Item Response Theory (IRT) and Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT)—can be applied to FAA knowledge testing through calibrated adaptive item banks. From an aviation training + IT systems perspective, it argues that fixed-form testing encourages rote memorization and is psychometrically outdated, and it outlines implementation requirements (data volume, secure delivery infrastructure, exposure control) and human-factors considerations (e.g., review behavior and multistage testing).