Risk Prediction Models for Type 2 Diabetes Remission After Bariatric Surgery: A Scoping Review

This scoping review aims to systematically map existing risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes remission after bariatric surgery. We will search major electronic databases for studies that develop, update, or validate preoperative or perioperative models that estimate the probability of postoperative type 2 diabetes remission. Two reviewers will independently screen records, select eligible studies, and extract data on study design, population, type of surgery, definition and timing of diabetes remission, candidate and final predictors, modelling methods, performance measures (e.g. discrimination and calibration), and extent of internal and external validation. We will summarize the characteristics and performance of each model in tables and narrative form, highlight common predictors and methodological strengths or weaknesses, and identify gaps such as inconsistent outcome definitions, limited follow‑up, or lack of impact studies. The expected outcome of this project is a comprehensive overview of current prediction tools, which will inform clinicians and researchers about their potential utility in preoperative counselling and guide the design of future, more robust and generalizable models.