Probability Judgements of Familiar Events that violate Binary Complementarity

2026 Preprint Open access

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Authors: Aidan Tee, Yitong Lin, Joakim Sundh, Nick Chater, Adam N. Sanborn
DOI: 10.17605/osf.io/f64x9
Cited by: 0

Abstract

We examine whether eliciting probability judgements of exclusive and exhaustive events in several high-knowledge environments leads to systematic violations of binary complementarity. We ask participants to produce several responses per observation, mimicking the experimental paradigms used in sampling-focused experiments.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference Probability and Statistical Research

Publication details

Publication date
1 January 2026
Language
EN
Document type
Preprint