James Orion Report Fusion: Evidence-Driven SOP and NHP Analysis of UAP Cases

This preprint introduces a rigorous methodology for evaluating Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) by combining the James Orion Report (JOR) framework with Bayesian posterior analysis. The JOR framework quantifies Solid Object Probability (SOP) to determine whether a physical event occurred and Non-Human Probability (NHP) to assess anomalous characteristics, ensuring that non-human hypotheses are evaluated only on a solid evidentiary foundation. The method employs a stepwise workflow, incorporating witness credibility, environmental conditions, and physical or sensor evidence to generate weighted SOP and NHP scores. Bayesian reasoning then updates the likelihood of human versus non-human hypotheses, producing posterior probabilities that integrate prior knowledge with observed evidence. Two illustrative cases—a Tier 1 UAP in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico (2013) and a Tier 2 UAP in Socorro, New Mexico (1964)—demonstrate the framework’s application, showing how evidence strength and prior probabilities shape posterior assessments. This approach enables reproducible, transparent, and systematic UAP analysis, providing a foundation for automated evaluation, rapid assessment of new reports, and integration with probabilistic programming tools for future research. Contact: Jake James spaceydayz2@yahoo.com