Module E — Forward Prediction of Church Expansion (30–1000 CE)

**Module E prereg summary:** We test whether a Jesus-centered warped-time geometry, with parameters locked from prior biblical analyses, predicts out-of-sample church-history event density (30–1000 CE). External events are programmatically extracted from a frozen revision of Wikipedia’s *Timeline of Christianity* (numeric-year entries only; no prose stored), converted into 25-year binned counts using proportional overlap for ranged dates, and modeled in count space with Poisson GLMs. We compare a null baseline (M0), a log-linear time trend (M1), a Jesus-tail Cauchy pulse in warped time (M2; γ_J ∈ {20,25,40,60}), and a Jesus-tail plus forward echo (M3; Δ ∈ {50,100,…,500} τ units). Hyperparameters are selected by maximizing Poisson log-likelihood on the external series, and confirmatory thresholds are ΔLL(M2−M0)>10 and ΔLL(M3−M2)>10 nats. A random-anchor negative control recomputes τ(t) under alternative anchors to test specificity to 33 CE.