Geopolitical Predictions 2026-2035

This project archives the development and pre-registration of a tripartite threshold model for forecasting state failure (the "Failure Frontier"). It contains live, dated predictions for state collapse and systemic crisis in Myanmar, Iran, and Pakistan for the 2027-2035 period. The core theoretical framework was established prior to major exogenous events in early 2026, and this repository provides the timestamped basis for evaluating its predictive accuracy for endogenous state collapse. All components theory, forecasts, and validation protocols are publicly documented to ensure transparency and falsifiability.