When Politics Meets Climate: Understanding Food Behaviour of Wealthy Indians using a Simulation Study

Climate change contributions are unequally distributed across socioeconomic groups, with high socioeconomic status individuals generating disproportionately higher carbon emissions. This inequality is not limited to Western countries; it is also evident in India, where rapid economic development has intensified lifestyle-based emissions. Despite widespread unawareness of these carbon inequalities, large-scale behavioural change, particularly among high socioeconomic individuals, holds significant potential to reduce climate impacts. Given their influence, resources, and social visibility, high socioeconomic individuals are uniquely positioned to drive systemic transformations across public policy, social norms, and market structures. Understanding which behavioural changes are most feasible for the betterment of the environment, however, requires attention to behavioural plasticity- the extent to which behaviours can be modified. Behavioural plasticity is traditionally assessed through evidence from field experiments, policy interventions, or real-world behavioural shifts. Yet such evidence is often scarce, behaviour-specific, or context-dependent, making it challenging to generalize. In these cases, perceived behavioural plasticity becomes a useful construct. Perceived behavioural plasticity captures individuals’ perceptions of how feasible it would be to change their behaviours, taking into account perceived costs, constraints, and barriers. These perceptions can help identify behaviour-change opportunities, enabling policymakers to target interventions toward actions that individuals consider realistically achievable. Perceived behavioural plasticity is shaped not only by practical considerations (such as perceived barriers and costs) but also by political factors like trust in government and political orientation. Higher trust in government can increase acceptance of coercive climate policies, such as taxes or restrictions. Political orientation also influences behavioural willingness: left-leaning individuals tend to show greater openness to reducing carbon-intensive behaviours, while right-leaning individuals are often less supportive of policies such as meat taxes. These political dynamics are particularly relevant for food-related behaviours since the food system, especially red meat consumption, is a major contributor to carbon emissions. In India, food choices are strongly politicized; government policies and selective bans have linked red meat consumption to religious and social identity conflicts. This makes red meat not only environmentally relevant but also politically and socially sensitive. Despite this heightened political salience, little is known about perceived behavioural plasticity toward climate-relevant behaviours such as reducing red meat consumption among socially and economically rich Indians. Existing research on perceived behavioural plasticity primarily reflects Western contexts, where political identities and food politics differ substantially. Although Nielsen et al. (2026) offer cross-sectional insights into perceived behavioural plasticity in India, cross-sectional data cannot capture how trust in government and political orientation may dynamically shape behavioural flexibility across time. To address this gap, the current research project uses bayesian regression modelling and agent-based modelling to investigate how trust in government, political orientation, and perceived behavioural plasticity among high socioeconomic Indians evolve over a 20-year period.