Velocity Asymmetry Law — D5B Fiscal Crisis (Laeven-Valencia Banking + PFMH, 1980–2017)

We test whether the Velocity Asymmetry Law (VAL) — which predicts that the ratio Lambda = F/S predicts systemic banking crisis onset with a non-trivial threshold structure — holds in the fiscal domain. F = absolute primary fiscal balance (% GDP, IMF PFMH), S = real GDP growth (IMF WEO, NGDP_RPCH). Three confirmatory hypotheses tested: H1 (monotonic Lambda-crisis relationship), H2 (non-trivial threshold Lambda_c with OOS stability), H3 (hysteresis: Lambda pre-crisis > Lambda at recovery). Domain PASS requires H1 AND H2 AND H3 confirmed. This is the 4th confirmatory VAL domain (preceded by D3 Finance PASS, D4 Epidemiology PASS, D6b Fisheries PASS).