Relative vulnerability of US National Parks to cumulative and transformational climate change vulnerability

National Parks are under threat from multiple interacting climatic changes, which have already triggered transformations in these protected landscapes. We conducted a multi-dimensional analysis of climate-change vulnerability for National Parks to identify which parks are most at risk of climate-change impacts and therefore in the greatest need of targeted climate-change vulnerability assessment and planning. We identified 174 (67%) parks as most exposed to one or more potentially transformative climate impacts including fire, drought, sea-level rise, and forest pests and diseases. Cumulative vulnerability across multiple dimensions was highest for parks in the midwest and eastern U.S. due to high physical exposures, the exacerbation of existing stressors, and high surrounding land-use intensity. Western parks exhibited lower cumulative vulnerability due to less intense land use and topography that may provide climatic refugia. However, western parks tended to be most exposed to multiple transformative impacts. These widespread, diverse threats highlight not only the need for coordinated evaluation of vulnerabilities from multiple perspectives, but also the need for park managers to evaluate and plan for potentially irreversible ecological changes to the landscapes and resources that parks are intended to preserve.