Quit Attempt History and Intention to Quit as Predictors of Perceived Effectiveness of Continuum of Risk Switching Messages Among Adults Who Smoke

This preregistration specifies hypotheses and analysis plans for examining how past quit experiences (quit attempt history in the past year) and current quit intentions independently and interactively influence the perceived effectiveness of FDA continuum of risk (COR) messages promoting switching to lower-risk tobacco alternatives among adults who smoke combustible tobacco. Data come from Study 1 of Project CHARM (Communicating about the Harms and Risk Messaging of Tobacco Products), a cross-sectional national survey of 2,000 participants stratified by tobacco use behavior. For this analysis, we focus on adults who smoke cigarettes (ages 21+) who viewed at least one COR switching message. From the target recruitment sample of 1,000 adults stratified by quit attempt history (n=500 with no quit attempts in past year, n=500 with 1+ quit attempts), only those who viewed at least one COR switching message are included in analyses (estimated n=919; Group 1: n=477, Group 2: n=442). Participants rated randomly-assigned tobacco health messages, including COR messages promoting complete switching to e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, or nicotine pouches. This preregistration specifically addresses switching COR messages; other message categories (e.g., combustion, nicotine education) are not examined here.