Cognitive Forecasting Third-Person and First-Person Tasks Study

In this study, we examine the effects of “cognitive forecasting” on people’s decision-making. By cognitive forecasting, we refer to how individuals predict their future thoughts and attention about an uncertain outcome, and how these predictions influence their present risk preferences. Specifically, we investigate whether anticipating frequent thoughts about a risky investment during a waiting period (i.e., forecasting high attention) strengthens the relationship between expectations about the outcome (optimism vs. pessimism) and risk-taking.