Velocity Asymmetry Law — D5 Sovereign Debt (Laeven-Valencia + IMF WEO, 1980–2017)

We test whether the Velocity Asymmetry Law (VAL) — which predicts that the ratio Lambda = F/S (forcing over clearance) predicts crisis onset with a non-trivial threshold structure — holds in the sovereign debt domain. F is operationalized as the primary fiscal deficit as a percentage of potential GDP (IMF WEO), and S as real GDP growth. Crisis outcomes are taken from the Laeven-Valencia (2018) Sovereign Debt Crisis Database — an exogenous label based on external default events, Paris Club restructurings, and IMF interventions, defined independently of Lambda. This is the fifth domain in a cross-domain confirmatory program (D1 Ecology: FAILED; D2 OWID Epidemiology: FAILED instrument; D3 Finance/Banking: PASS; D4 Epidemiology JHU: PASS). All hypotheses, criteria, data sources, stop conditions, and sensitivity analyses are pre-specified and frozen prior to data inspection. Parent OSF project: 10.17605/OSF.IO/A7U3H