The Political Effects of Racialized Public Opinion Polls

This survey experiment seeks to answer whether public opinion polls that depict racial opinion gaps on policing and police reform have causal effects on individuals' policy preferences. Specifically, I test whether learning about racial majorities’ support for different police funding policies influences subsequent policy preferences, and whether these effects depend on both the public opinion information portrayed and the specific policy in question. Respondents will be randomly assigned to read news articles featuring poll results that vary which racial group (Black or White Americans) is portrayed as holding majority support for either maintaining/increasing police funding or redirecting police funds to social programs. This project builds on prior experimental work that demonstrates the bandwagon effects of public opinion data by adding the element of race. It also builds on research on messenger effects and source cues, while testing whether racial source cues interact with policy content in shaping attitudes. Respondents will be recruited through an online vendor and will be pre-screened so as to include only those who identify as Black or White. I have conducted a pilot to refine the data collection process. This pre-analysis plan is being filed prior to any randomization or data collection beyond the pilot.