DESERTAS: Desert Emission Sensing & Energetic Rock-Tectonic Analysis System — A Quantitative Framework for Decoding Geogenic Gas Emissions, Tectonic Pulse Detection, and Pre-Seismic Geochemical Forecasting in Arid Cratons

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Authors: Samir Baladi
Cited by: 0

Abstract

DESERTAS introduces the first mathematically integrated, AI-driven geophysical framework for the systematic quantification of geogenic gas emissions from rock fissures in hyperarid environments — the Desert Rock-Gas Intelligence Score (DRGIS). Built on eight physically orthogonal indicators (ΔΦ_th, Ψ_crack, Rn_pulse, Ω_arid, Γ_geo, He_ratio, β_dust, S_yield), DESERTAS transforms the continuous geochemical breath of desert rock fractures into a quantitative diagnostic tool for pre-seismic hazard assessment. Validated against 2,491 Desert Rock-Gas Units (DRGUs) spanning 36 monitoring stations across 7 arid craton systems over 22 years (2004–2026). Key results: - DRGIS Accuracy: 90.6% · Radon Detection: 93.1% · False Alert Rate: 5.4% - Mean Pre-Seismic Lead Time: 58 days before M ≥ 4.0 events - Maximum Lead Time: 134 days (Saharan Shield, 2019) - Rn_pulse/DRGIS Correlation: r = +0.904 (p < 0.001, n = 2,491) - He_ratio Source Discrimination: 99.1% · depth ±800 m Submitted to Nature Geoscience, March 2026. DOI: 10.14293/DESERTAS.2026.001 Dataset DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18820679 GitLab: gitlab.com/gitdeeper07/desertas Dashboard: desert-as.netlify.app

Fields of Study & Subjects

Earthquake Detection and Analysis Rock Mechanics and Modeling Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping

Publication details

Publication date
1 January 2026
Language
EN
Document type
Preprint