Velocity Asymmetry Law — D6 Fisheries Collapse (RAM Legacy v4.66, 1950–2022)

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Authors: Jose Mardlin
Cited by: 0

Abstract

We test whether the Velocity Asymmetry Law (VAL) — which predicts that the ratio Lambda = F/F_MSY (fishing over clearance) predicts fisheries collapse onset with monotonic association, threshold structure, and hysteresis asymmetry — holds in fisheries stock assessment data. Dataset: RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database v4.66 (~500 stocks, global). Three pre-specified confirmatory hypotheses tested sequentially (H1 monotonic, H2 threshold, H3 hysteresis). 70/30 entity-based train/test split (seed=42). Domain PASS requires H1 AND H2 AND H3 all confirmed. Full protocol: D6_FISHERIES_VALIDATION_PROTOCOL_v1_1.docx (attached).

Fields of Study & Subjects

Marine and fisheries research Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models Ecosystem dynamics and resilience

Publication details

Publication date
1 January 2026
Language
EN
Document type
Preprint