Psychosocial Predictors of Support for and Engagement in Political Violence

PROJECT PURPOSE: This confirmatory analysis plan tests dispositional and situational predictors of political violence in the context of ongoing farmer-herder conflicts in Plateau State, Nigeria. The study examines how trait victimhood (a stable individual-difference construct) and competitive/intergroup victimhood (situational perceptions of relative group suffering) predict both support for and engagement in political violence. We further test whether perceived intergroup threat moderates these relationships. The research addresses critical gaps in understanding how victimhood beliefs (both dispositional and situational) contribute to political violence in non-WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democratic) contexts. While substantial research links victimhood to violence in Western and Israeli-Palestinian contexts, far less is known about these mechanisms in sub-Saharan African intergroup conflicts. RESEARCH DESIGN: This preregistration specifies confirmatory analyses of cross-sectional survey data collected from N = 630 participants (Indigenous/Native farming communities: n = 315; Fulani herding communities: n = 315) in Plateau State, Nigeria. Data collection was completed in October 2025 via face-to-face structured interviews conducted by trained research assistants. CONFIRMATORY HYPOTHESES (5 total): Primary hypotheses test whether: 1. Trait victimhood positively predicts support for political violence (H1) 2. Competitive victimhood positively predicts support for political violence (H2) 3. Trait victimhood positively predicts engagement in violent behaviors (H3) 4. Competitive victimhood positively predicts engagement in violent behaviors (H4) 5. Perceived intergroup threat moderates the victimhood-violence relationships, such that these relationships are stronger at higher levels of threat (H5a, H5b) All confirmatory analyses control for age, gender, and ethnicity/community group membership. STATISTICAL APPROACH: Primary analyses employ ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression for continuous outcomes and include binary logistic regression sensitivity analyses. Moderation is tested via hierarchical regression with interaction terms. Multiple testing is addressed through Benjamini-Hochberg False Discovery Rate (FDR) correction within hypothesis families. TRANSPARENCY AND RIGOR: This preregistration was completed on January 29, 2026, after data collection was completed but before conducting any hypothesis tests involving the primary predictors and outcomes. The analysis plan includes a comprehensive specification of: - Variable operationalizations and scale construction - Statistical models with full equations - Assumption checking procedures and diagnostic plans - Outlier detection and handling protocols - Missing data contingencies - Sensitivity analyses (robust standard errors, binary outcomes, outlier exclusion) - Multiple testing correction procedures - Clear distinction between confirmatory and exploratory analyses EXPECTED OUTCOMES: We expect to find that both dispositional (trait victimhood) and situational (competitive victimhood) factors predict political violence outcomes, with threat perceptions amplifying these relationships. Findings will contribute to: 1. Theoretical understanding of how victimhood beliefs contribute to intergroup violence 2. Empirical evidence from an understudied sub-Saharan African conflict context 3. Practical insights for conflict resolution interventions in farmer-herder disputes 4. Methodological demonstration of rigorous confirmatory research practices in field settings Results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals focusing on intergroup conflict, political psychology, or African studies, with all data, code, and materials made openly available upon publication (subject to ethical constraints). BROADER SIGNIFICANCE: Farmer-herder conflicts in Nigeria's Middle Belt region have resulted in thousands of deaths and widespread displacement in recent years. Understanding the psychological mechanisms underlying support for and engagement in political violence is essential for developing evidence-based peacebuilding interventions. This research provides theoretically-grounded, empirically-rigorous evidence to inform such efforts. PREREGISTRATION TYPE: Post-data collection, pre-analysis confirmatory preregistration