Velocity Asymmetry Law — D7 Power Grid Failure (EIA/EAGLE-I, USA 2015–2023)
Abstract
Pre-registered confirmatory validation of the Velocity Asymmetry Law (VAL) for Domain 7: Power Grid Failure. VAL predicts that the ratio Lambda = Load_peak / (Installed_Capacity × AF) — measuring fast demand forcing relative to slow reserve clearance — predicts non-programmed outage events exceeding a pre-specified crisis threshold. Field verification completed 2026-02-26. All stop conditions passed (GO). N_crisis = 1,681 events. H3 status locked: CONFIRMATORY (N_pairs = 1,411). Geography: USA Balancing Authorities, EIA Form 930 + EAGLE-I + OE-417, 2015–2023.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Power System Reliability and Maintenance
Power System Optimization and Stability
Electric Power System Optimization
Publication details
- Publication date
- 1 January 2026
- Language
- EN
- Document type
- Preprint