Velocity Asymmetry Law — D7 Power Grid Failure (EIA/EAGLE-I, USA 2015–2023)

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Authors: Jose Mardlin
Cited by: 0

Abstract

Pre-registered confirmatory validation of the Velocity Asymmetry Law (VAL) for Domain 7: Power Grid Failure. VAL predicts that the ratio Lambda = Load_peak / (Installed_Capacity × AF) — measuring fast demand forcing relative to slow reserve clearance — predicts non-programmed outage events exceeding a pre-specified crisis threshold. Field verification completed 2026-02-26. All stop conditions passed (GO). N_crisis = 1,681 events. H3 status locked: CONFIRMATORY (N_pairs = 1,411). Geography: USA Balancing Authorities, EIA Form 930 + EAGLE-I + OE-417, 2015–2023.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Power System Reliability and Maintenance Power System Optimization and Stability Electric Power System Optimization

Publication details

Publication date
1 January 2026
Language
EN
Document type
Preprint