Protocol for a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis on the Prevalence, Trends, and Projections of Overweight and Obesity Among Children and Adolescents in Indonesia

Note: This is a retrospective registration. The protocol documented here reflects the pre-specified plan and methodology that was followed during the execution of this study, which was completed prior to this registration. The original protocol was written in July 2025. Background and Rationale Overweight and obesity among children and adolescents represent a growing public health challenge in Indonesia, carrying long-term consequences for the burden of noncommunicable diseases. This physiological issue is uniquely complicated in Indonesia by the double burden of malnutrition, where early-life undernutrition and a rapid nutrition transition toward ultra-processed foods coexist. Despite the severity of this trajectory, there is currently no pooled prevalence data existing for school-aged children and adolescents nationwide. Furthermore, the limited availability of comprehensive trend data makes it difficult to understand historical shifts or accurately project the future prevalence of youth obesity. Objectives The primary objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to estimate the pooled prevalence of overweight and obesity—both combined and separately—among Indonesian children and adolescents. The secondary objectives are to establish temporal trends from available observational data and to project future prevalence and absolute case burdens up to the year 2050 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling. Additionally, the study aims to explore demographic patterns through subgroup analyses based on sex, school level, and survey period. Expected Outcomes This research is expected to provide the most thorough assessment of Indonesia's placement in the epidemiological landscape of childhood and adolescent obesity. By quantifying the current burden and forecasting trends through 2050, the study will deliver crucial baseline information for public health initiatives. Ultimately, the findings aim to highlight the urgent need for targeted, multisectoral prevention strategies to curb the future noncommunicable disease burden and protect the country's demographic bonus.