Subjective beliefs about climate-related production losses in Italian grape production: comparing farmers, experts, and policymakers

This study elicits and compares subjective beliefs about climate-related grape production losses among (i) winegrowers, (ii) experts, and (iii) policymakers working in agriculture, agricultural insurance, climate risk, and/or agricultural policy. Climate change is increasing exposure to extreme and compound weather hazards, with consequences for agricultural production and risk management needs (IPCC 2022; Devot et al., 2023). Prior research shows that subjective beliefs and risk perceptions shape farmers’ decisions, including adoption of risk-management tools and insurance (Menapace et al., 2013, Rippo & Cerroni, 2023). Measuring and comparing beliefs across stakeholder groups can inform policy design and communication by identifying alignment or perception gaps within the sector. In this study, we elicit the expected frequency of annual grape production losses due to extreme events (drought, excessive rainfall, strong wind, late frost, hail) for multiple time horizons (5, 15, and 30 years) and loss thresholds (30%, 50%, and 70%). Data are collected through an online survey on oTree (https://www.otree.org/). The expert and policymaker survey is standalone, while the farmer belief module is embedded in a broader survey experiment that will be preregistered separately (Barba, Francesca Romana, Simone Cerroni, Marco Palma and Andreas Drichoutis. 2026. "Higher-Order Risk Preferences and Risk-Management Behavior among Italian Winegrowers." AEA RCT Registry). Nothing in this preregistration changes the design, outcomes, or primary hypotheses of the cited, preregistered study: this preregistration covers only the belief elicitation outcomes and the planned comparisons across respondent groups. Devot, A., Royer, L., Arvis, B., Deryng, D., Caron Giauffret, E., Giraud, L., Ayral, V., & Rouillard, J. (2023). Research for AGRI Committee – The impact of extreme climate events on agriculture production in the EU. European Parliament, Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies. IPCC. (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.015 Menapace, L., Colson, G., & Raffaelli, R. (2013). Risk aversion, subjective beliefs, and farmer risk management strategies. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 95(2), 384–389. http://www.jstor.org/stable/23358407 Rippo, R., & Cerroni, S. (2023). Farmers’ participation in the Income Stabilisation Tool: Evidence from the apple sector in Italy. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 74, 273–294. https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12508