Understanding China’s Influence towards Central and Eastern European Countries: Adaptive Approach, Local Agency and Contextual Factors

Against the backdrop of China’s rise and the growing presence in Central and Eastern Europe, especially the launch of the China-Central and Eastern European Countries Cooperation Framework, widespread wisdom assumed that China’s engagement in the region constitutes a coherent and successful strategy of influence. Instead, this study contends that China’s approach towards Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) is best understood as improvised and adaptive, shaped not only by Beijing’s intentions and methods but also by the agency of local states and the evolving international context. It further examines the fragmented and limited nature of China’s influence in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) from 2012 to 2024. The analytical framework developed in this study integrates five modalities of influence – Preference Multiplier, Discursive Persuasion, Institutional Shaping, Accommodation, and Power to Prevail. China’s approach is chronological as it exhibits different combinations of influence modalities at different stages, highlighting that it is impacted by the interaction between China’s practices, local agency, and broader contextual factors. By systematically examining China’s evolving engagement and conducting comparative case studies (notably Hungary and Lithuania), the study demonstrates the limited and fragmented nature of China’s influence. The findings further indicate that China’s influence in CEE is limited and fragmented, fundamentally constrained by three interrelated factors: 1. Inherent limitations in China’s approach, 2. The differentiated agency of CEECs, and 3. Contextual factors, particularly the shifting EU policy and dynamics in US-China and EU-China relations. This research makes three main contributions: 1. It challenges the widespread wisdom of a coherent Chinese grand strategy in CEE, offering a more nuanced account of China’s improvised approach and the region’s differentiated responses. 2. It advances the theoretical literature by refining a comprehensive influence framework in a novel regional context. 3. Grounding analysis in extensive empirical evidence and original case studies provides a foundation for comparative research on China’s influence in other world regions and future studies on the interaction between external actors, local agency, and regional context.