Geopolitical Upheaval Through Climate Measures: IMO and EU Decisions for International Shipping

The contribution of the shipping sector to the fight against climate change and, particularly, to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions has been high on the maritime agenda for the last decade. In this context, the International Maritime Organization and the European Union, two international organizations that strive to regulate shipping emissions, adopt several policies, measures, or tools to that end. This article explores whether and to what extent the decisions of the two respective organizations will have geopolitical repercussions that might affect shipping and trade operations. The findings, at least for the time being, suggest that existing climate policies are diverging, thereby increasing the complexity and uncertainty of the geopolitical landscape. This results in multiple potential scenarios concerning which countries will assume leadership in maritime fuel trading.