Human Capital and Labor Market Effects of Elite Schooling in England, Scotland, and Wales: New Causal Evidence from Nonparametric Bounds

We estimate the causal effect of attending elite schools in England, Scotland, and Wales on human capital and labor market outcomes for cohorts of children from the 1958 National Child Development Study and the 1970 British Cohort Study. For identification, we employ a nonparametric partial-identification approach that provides bounds on the causal effect by assuming that, on average, there is positive selection into elite school attendance, and that attending an elite school does not worsen average potential human capital or labor market outcomes. The bounds indicate that there could possibly be large education and labor market returns from attending an elite school. However, the bounds are also consistent with smaller effects, including no causal effects of elite schooling at all.