The Impact of Climate Change on Productivity of Turkiye’s Agricultural Sector: Empirical Evidence on the Role of Economic Growth

As the initial stage of the food supply chain, the agricultural sector holds significance not only for national economies but also for human health, sustainability, and food security. Agricultural production relies on various inputs, and numerous factors influence agricultural productivity. Notably, changes brought about by climate change affect many sectors, including agriculture, and consequently impact food production. In this context, this study aims to examine the effects of climate change and economic growth on Turkiye's agricultural sector for the period 1990–2021 using the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) approach. The findings reveal the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship in the model. According to the long-run coefficient estimates, precipitation and economic growth have a positive effect on the agricultural sector, while temperature has a negative effect. To ensure the sustainability and increased productivity of Turkiye’s agricultural sector, measures should be taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to global warming. Furthermore, in regions with insufficient rainfall, irrigation and agricultural policies such as the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) should be actively implemented.