Shifting Economic Trends and Crime in Rural Communities

Economic and demographic shifts can shape property crime patterns in rural communities, challenging assumptions that these areas are inherently safe. Prior research has linked factors such as population size, housing turnover, employment, and resource production to crime, yet few studies examine their combined effects in rural settings. This study analyzes the relationship between economic indicators and property crime in rural Natrona County, Wyoming, guided by Routine Activity Theory, Strain Theory, and Social Disorganization Theory. The study hypothesizes that decreases in oil and gas production, heightened drought levels, a shrinking labor force, rising unemployment and residential availability, and lower high school graduation rates will be associated with increases in property crime. Additionally, it is expected that Natrona County will experience lower levels of property crime during periods of lockdown mandates. An Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model with the independent variables, COVID-19, gas and oil production, total population, labor force size, and homes for sale, was applied to monthly property crime data from January 2021 through December 2023. The model explained 91% of the variance in crime. Findings show COVID-19 negatively predicted property crime, while population totals and homes for sale were positively associated. Gas production was significant without a clear trend, and oil production and labor force size were not significant. Results highlight the critical role of housing and population dynamics in rural crime patterns. Future research should expand economic measures and improve data reliability to better capture rural crime dynamics.